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 Post Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:33 pm 
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OK, the realistic field has narrowed down to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg. Only the last is a real surprise.

Who do you prefer, and who do you think will win? I like Warren the best out of the bunch, but then I've always had a soft spot for wonks.

I wouldn't mind Bernie, but feel like he's a bit of a one trick pony. The the thing that turns me off of him is his foreign policy, or lack thereof. "How Will You Deal With China?" is a really important issue for me, and Bernie's answer to that is "Eh, China kinda sucks but there's nothing much we can do". He's just not thought about it much at all.

Buttigieg, he's basically Biden, but younger, and less weird and rambling. Don't really have strong feelings about him one way or the other. Seems like a bit of a glib Mr. Clever Clogs. In a normal election year I'd be concerned about his lack of experience but not when the sitting president is an actual game show host.

I am most dreading a "hold your nose and vote for Biden" campaign; I only remember elections back to Bush vs. Gore, but in every one the candidate who was able to better resonate emotionally with voters won. If Biden ever had that ability, I don't think he does anymore.

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 Post Posted: Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:44 am 
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I did not do any in depth analysis of the candidates but here is my take:

I believe the democrats should put up someone from their left, both because i think that the policies would be good for the US and because i think they can gain more by increasing the turnout of their base, then they can gain from swing voters.

I think Warren has a slight edge in electablity and in the chances to get her policies implemented, because she is generally percieved as less radical and more establishment then Sanders, so she can use the narrative "Sanders is the left edge, Trump the right, i am the sensible middle ground if a bit leftleaning" for the politically uninterested part of the electorate, where Sanders would have to rely much more on base turnout.

And when in office, she can in negotiations use "I have to bring in something for the left base, if you don't give me anything, next time you might have to negotiate with someone like Sanders", which would not work that well the other way round, and this gives her some extra leverage and policies that are sold as compromise tend to be more durable.

As a little caveat my overall impression on Sanders is, that somewhat in contrast to his archetypical supporters, he actually is a skilled machiavellist. Like after all he is in politics forever and only at a time when he has realistic chances to have an impact he does the big slpash on national level things like running for president. So there is some chance that he does better in office, then his positioning on the political spectrum would suggest.

Buttigieg seems like a machiavellist without any real principles to me, but a very skilled one. I guess he'd do well electorally, unless he is crippled by a low black voter turnout or something like this. I don't think there are any real indicators what policies he will pursue when in office, because his current Biden like position might simply be due to him trying to attract Biden voters for strategic reason in this stage of the campain.

Biden seems a "he scares Republican the least, so maybe some of them will vote for him" candiate and this strategy has a very bad track record. And a bit of "Make America as great as it was under Obama again", which could work, but i don't know if it is enough.

Seems like i have the same ranking as Kea.

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 Post Posted: Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:53 am 
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Warren is still my favorite. I wouldn't mind Biden because they say he has the chance of beating Trump and that's worth something. Sanders is actually starting to grate on me. He talks like's typing in ALL CAPS at the debates and he does come off as a one trick pony. Both Warren and Sanders come off as weak when it comes to foreign policy though, I suppose that's one advantage Biden has over them despite his gaffe -proneness.

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 Post Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:23 am 
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Buttigieg has turned out some surprisingly strong answers on foreign policy (at least on how to deal with China), although I am not sure how much to attribute this to his ability to sound erudite on any topic regardless of how much he knows or cares about it. The man could probably wax philosophical about competitive hot-dog eating if pressed.

Klobuchar still seems to be hanging in there.

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 Post Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:23 pm 
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So it seems Sanders is starting to attack his rivals, but tried to do it quietly. Color me shocked.

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 Post Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 9:16 am 
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Bloomberg seems to become semiserious at least. Aside from my general dislike towards candidates, who try cute tricks with procedures (such as entering the race late), i mainly see a "practically a republican, republicans will vote for him" candidate, which i don't think will work.

Does he have anything that the other B- candidates (including Klobuchar, who defies the last name pattern) do not have? Or do his polls numbers come from "that one is new, i got bored with the other ones"?

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 Post Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 3:28 pm 
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I suspect a fair amount of it was the idea that he was the moderate who could head off Sanders (which now seems a bit unlikely), and part of it was his open willingness to tell Trump to shove it in just so many words. Being able to drown the entire GOP in money without skipping a step may also play into it; he can drop $10 billion on this and never miss it. There is a literally 0.0 chance that Trump could ever buy the election or even be adequately funded compared to Bloomberg.

Now it's entirely true that the folks debased enough to like Trump would never consider voting for Bloomberg, but he would probably make a very large inroad into the Republicans who are sick of Trump's style and would never expect Mr. Stop-and-Frisk to be all that interested in being particularly nice to 'those people'. Heck, he'd get all the Bernie Bros; they're all libertarians anyway. He'd lose a bunch of Bernie's kids, but they're mostly in states he couldn't lose anyway. It looks like if he's nominated he'd probably do as well as any other moderate; and probably better than some.

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 Post Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2020 11:18 pm 
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I don't expect that many people in the US would care, but the Chinese Communist Party has Bloomberg by the nuts. His news outlet has fired a reporter (and also threatened to sue said reporter's spouse) for investigating Xi Jinping's family fortune a little too closely. He needs to kiss arse to keep his news network and his financial terminals in the country. I do not want him to be president. I mean, it would be a bare improvement over Trump's blood debt to Putin, but not by much. I would only vote for him only to stop Trump from being reelected. I'd rather have Biden than him, and out of the moderates, I'd have Pete or Amy over either of them.

I have no idea what the hell any libertarians are doing supporting Bernie. They must not be very good at being libertarians.

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 Post Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 8:57 am 
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Bernie plays a left winger on TV, but an awful lot of his actual track record is fairly libertarian. Besides, everyone knows Medicare for all is dead on arrival; can you name another actual left wing platform of his with a chance of enactment?

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 Post Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 9:03 am 
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I'd expect Bloomberg to have a problem with a low voter turnout with leftwing and non white voters. Sure it's rational for them to vote for him over Trump, but when are people rational when voting?

I would assume that Buttigieg with his troubles with policeing in Southbend and Biden with his opposition to busing should seem safe to voters, who fear "those people" too.

But Biden can play the Obama card, and Buttigieg seems way more talented to say to both sides, what they want to hear, so i see a better chance for both of them to get a better voter turnout from safe democratic voters.

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 Post Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 10:03 am 
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I don't know enough about US libertarians and about Bernies other platform and the subgroups of his supporters, that i can do more then guess.

But one of the basic attitudes, that a lot of people, who are libertarian or some equivalent are, hold, is a dislike towards anything that looks like rewarding a lack of success in life. Like pretty much every welfare support, where you have to show, that you are poor enough to qualify. Sort of the polar opposite of leftwingers, who oppose blanket subsidies like free collage, because then rich peoples kids can get go to collage for free.

Medicare for all could be sold to that flavour of libertarian i suppose.

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 Post Posted: Fri Feb 21, 2020 11:11 am 
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If you go by the standards of likely enactment, nobody's plans are going to be enacted unless the Dems retake the Senate. But Bernie's signature policy is to raise taxes on the rich, which is kryptonite for libertarians.

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 Post Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:00 pm 
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These days it's more Medicare for All (which is a complete non-starter). But thanks to the Republicans he can ignore Congress for a great deal of stuff. Heck, he can entirely staff the Administration without even asking the Senate what they think (though Judges would be a bit harder).

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 Post Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 6:08 am 
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Well Putin must be laughing his arse off now; he thinks Bernie's a perfect tool to troll America with, and it seems to be working. Unless the moderates can coalesce around one candidate, Bernie's going to get the nomination. I would still vote for Bernie. He's done more than any other American politician in the last fifty years to rehabilitate the "socialist" label, but enough to win a general election? I think he'd energize both bases and make the moderates stay home.

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 Post Posted: Tue Feb 25, 2020 8:28 am 
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I guess it depends on, if he manages some outreach to moderates, once he has the nomination, and how well the centrist democrats manage to shift gears from "Bernie is a socialist, who will doom us" to "Actually Bernie walks on water" or at least to "He might be a socialist, but he is our socialist".

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