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 Post Posted: Mon May 04, 2020 8:34 pm 
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It's not even a sexual assault allegation, since she's now saying that the complaint filed back when (which no one has on hand) was just for inappropriate behavior. But if it does happen that Biden can't run? Interesting question, no one is sure. And it's not the worst of questions, though at this point Covid-19 is more likely to get him than this matter. About all we can be reasonably sure of at this point is that it won't be Bernie.

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 Post Posted: Sun Aug 16, 2020 11:39 pm 
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So Kamala Harris is Veep. It took all of what, 10 minutes for the birthers to come out yelling that she's not a real American?

Tammy Duckworth would have been cool, but I'm fine with Harris. I understand that she is a pretty mainstream Democrat who has drifted left along with the rest of her party.

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 Post Posted: Tue Aug 18, 2020 11:46 am 
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In some ways she was fairly far to the left to begin with, though she was more or less a Rockefeller Republican on the 'law and order' issue until very recently. Eh, I'm just wondering how long it will take for Kamalot jokes to become more mainstream.

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 Post Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2020 3:09 pm 
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I guess she is primarily the risk averse candidate.

She checks all the boxes with the exception of swing state and AFAIK somewhat in the center of the democratic party.

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 Post Posted: Mon Aug 24, 2020 1:58 pm 
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She isn't from a swing state, but if she convinces black and/or Asian citizens to turn out and vote then she will be influencing a number of swing states.

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 Post Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 2:16 am 
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Yeah I'm not sure she's playing so well in the Black Lives Matter activist circles. And black voters seem to like Biden because of his association with Obama more than Harris in any case.

Asian voters are a tiny slice of the electorate - was it around 5%? So they won't make a different except in perhaps a few very strategic areas. And East Asians don't see themselves as the same group as South Asians. The older ones in particular are likely to be racist against brown people.

But Harris is fine. She doesn't offend or scare anybody who isn't racist to begin with, and those left of Biden who were sceptical of her are stuck with her anyway, so they'll deal.

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 Post Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:48 am 
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Yeah my overall impression is, that the demographic boxes she checks are most effective on woke white voters, but boosting their turnout has some value too.

And i agree she is not a bad choice. She is the polar opposite of a bold choice and if you want a contrast to Trump, that can be a good thing. The only downside is, that she is not doing much to complement Biden, because he is a save choice himself. But thats what you have to expect of leftwing establishment.

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 Post Posted: Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:56 am 
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Actually, her strength isn't the black left as much as black women. She's polling fairly well among them, and they were a lot less likely to turn out in 2016 than 2012 or 2008; so if she can make up some of that ground then she'll earn her keep.

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 Post Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2020 12:01 am 
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Compared to the other black women Biden was also considering, though? I think some of the others like Stacy Abrams would've generated more enthusiasm among black female voters, but Harris was a decent compromise candidate between the various Democratic factions.

Anyway, it seems weird to still have to slice and dice the electorate like this when Biden is talking about defeating the darkness with light as though Donald Trump were Ganondorf or something. If Trump loses the election, will flowers literally sprout up all over the land, bathed in golden light?

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 Post Posted: Fri Aug 28, 2020 9:20 am 
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They didn't when Hitler killed himself or when Beria poisoned Stalin; but we were still better off.

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 Post Posted: Sat Aug 29, 2020 8:45 pm 
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Hah. The Chinese leadership, and Xi Jinping especially, still blame Kruschev for repudiating Stalinism. Which gives you an idea of how these bastards think.

I wonder if these QAnon nutjobs will still worship Donald Trump when he's no longer president, or will they find another figurehead to rally their cult around?

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 Post Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 4:23 am 
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Passiflora wrote:

I wonder if these QAnon nutjobs will still worship Donald Trump when he's no longer president, or will they find another figurehead to rally their cult around?


Depends on how well Trump can form a backstab legend and if their new leader goes by "Trump was a martyr" or "Trump was a false prophet/Trump got corrupted".

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 Post Posted: Mon Aug 31, 2020 11:02 am 
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Well, the poll numbers on the more or less combined convention have come in. In terms of votes Biden got nothing while Trump got a two point bump (out of 8-10 points needed), and the latter will go away in a couple of weeks because convention bumps always do. But in terms of personal favorability, Biden and Harris both went up about 8 points while Trump went down about 8. So all in all the Democrats came out massively ahead because the Republicans failed to drag Biden down to Trump's level, and the election remains a referendum on Trump rather than a contest between Trump and Biden.

Just a note about it being a referendum; 2/3 of Biden's vote are people who say it's very important that he's not Trump/a Republican. Only 1/5 of Trump's voters care about Biden. The large majority of the voters are for/against Trump here, so it's worth taking stories which say it's still a horse race because Biden's support is soft with a grain of salt. Sure, no one is crawling over broken glass to vote for Biden (which one of Trump's base was quoted as being willing to do for him), but a plurality of the electorate will do that to vote against Trump.

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 Post Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 7:23 am 
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The few undecided voters seem to include quite a few people who LIKE Trump's policies, but don't like him as a person. They agree with keeping out immigrants, backing cops with near-impunity and giving tax breaks to rich people as policy objectives. They just don't like that Trump is crass and mean and selfish. Whereas they like Biden as a person, but don't support Democratic policies.

So whether Biden can beat Trump at the turn-out game (despite voter suppression) depends entirely on whether swing voters personally disliking Trump equates to wanting him out of office badly enough to get off their butts to vote in a pandemic. Some proportion of them might just stay home.

I don't think Biden can rely on "Trump is a terrible person". Everyone already knows he's a terrible person. And that's why it takes a global pandemic to bring Trump down. The disease doesn't care who's a good person but enough people are dying that almost half of Republicans think this isn't OK. (55% think the death toll is acceptable).

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 Post Posted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 9:28 am 
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Well, yes; so long as the dead are overwhelmingly old and/or black, the Republicans who are neither aren't all that bothered. If their butts get bitten they might change their tune, but that's then.

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