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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Tue Dec 17, 2019 9:57 am 
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Even if he can't get back into power again, failed attempts at doing so would likely be inconvenient for the powers that be.

And given AFAIK the ANC has not purged all Zuma supporters, if south africans had wanted more strict justice, they would have needed to vote the ANC out. The reformed ANC stands as far as i can see for a soft transition away from Zumaism.

As far as signals go, this is a double edged sword. On the one hand the low threat of retribution is not good for general prevention, on the other hand probably it gives corrupt politicans an incentive to run away with their loot early, rather then hold onto power at all cost, which makes it harder to build entranched networks of corrupt politicians.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 08, 2020 7:38 am 
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kitoba wrote:
CCC wrote:
Bribe and corrupt your way through the country and we won't be able to arrest you afterwards?


Honestly, I would take that deal with Trump, as long as steps were taken to close the loopholes and make sure it couldn't happen again...


There's always the "gain enough power to have the loopholes repealed" strategy, though. That'll be a tough one to stop...

Interestingly, he appears to be back from Cuba. So he wasn't running away. One wonders exactly why he went there, then.

arcosh wrote:
Even if he can't get back into power again, failed attempts at doing so would likely be inconvenient for the powers that be.

And given AFAIK the ANC has not purged all Zuma supporters, if south africans had wanted more strict justice, they would have needed to vote the ANC out. The reformed ANC stands as far as i can see for a soft transition away from Zumaism.

As far as signals go, this is a double edged sword. On the one hand the low threat of retribution is not good for general prevention, on the other hand probably it gives corrupt politicans an incentive to run away with their loot early, rather then hold onto power at all cost, which makes it harder to build entranched networks of corrupt politicians.


The ANC has not purged all Zuma supporters (that would be pretty close to half the party) - they've simply purged a few of the more blatantly corrupt ones and demoted a few others. I don't think that they have any choice but to make a soft transition away from Zumaism if they want to keep votes; Zuma may have been corrupt and greedy, and may have lost votes just about every election, but the party did retain the votes of over half the country and the party will want to keep those votes. So their official position is more or less "we'll keep promising the same stuff except this time we'll do it without the corruption", mainly in the expectation of retaining the same votes.

I suspect it'll be a winning strategy. And it'll win even harder if they can actually deliver on some of their promises. (This last part will be tricky, because a lot of money has been very carefully taken out of the country and that rather limits the options for the people who are left in charge).

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:37 am 
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So Zuma was supposed to be answering some tough questions on potentially corrupt dealings in front of the Zondo Commission around the end of January, but has pled off on the grounds of illness.

Now, it's possible that he is actually ill. (Though I can't help but think of Schabir Shaik, who was found guilty of corruption - paying bribes to Zuma - back in 2005; was released on medical parole in 2009, apparently on the basis that he was practically at death's door; and is still somehow surviving - and still, as I understand the matter, out of jail on medical parole - eleven years later).

Though Zuma claiming that "it's not that he doesn't want to testify, he just can't" seems a bit disingenuous. After all, some of these allegations have been hanging around since 2005, and Zuma's become famous for stonewalling and dodging court appearances in any way that he can. This just looks like it fits the same general pattern.

Still, Judge Zondo is going to call him at a later date instead. It's not as if there isn't plenty of other evidence of Zuma's corruption to still listen to, after all.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Tue Feb 04, 2020 6:38 am 
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There is now a warrant of arrest issued for Jacob Zuma.

He was supposed to appear in court on corruption charges related to The Arms Deal (a set of charges dating back to an incident in the 1990s), but was mysteriously absent. Normally, he arranges to have cheering crowds bussed in for 'moral support' - said crowds were also not in evidence today, a pretty clear indication that his absence was planned. And, indeed, Zuma's lawyer told the court that he was out of the country for medical reasons and presented a note to that effect. Since the judge didn't feel that the note was sufficient (apparently, it was undated, unclear, and had been altered), a warrant was then issued for Zuma's arrest on grounds of not showing up to court without sufficient reason.

Apparently it won't actually be executed until early May - Zuma's lawyers have that long to persuade the court that his medical reasons for not appearing are valid. So it's possible that it may never be executed. Nonetheless, it seems a clear indication that the court's patience is stretching very thin.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2020 6:24 am 
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So, that warrant of arrest turned out to be a slightly bigger deal than I thought it would be. (I thought it would more or less simmer quietly along in the background until Zuma's next scheduled court appearance on May 6.)

No, it's been seized on as a talking point by Zuma's supporters. More specifically, said supporters are loudly pointing out the warrant as "proof" that the entire judiciary is massively biased against poor little Jacob Zuma.

Zuma himself is now back in the country, saying that he is "not afraid of jail". He also claims that he really is sick (though he remains capable of standing up and addressing his supporters) and re-iterated that he is definitely more than ready to go to court as soon as possible. (Since he's been spending over ten years dodging, delaying, and avoiding any chance that the court might actually get anything done with respect to the charges against him, that seems highly unlikely.)

It's also noted, however, that the other politicians who are loudly supporting Zuma seem to be the ones who are themselves facing corruption charges. That is to say, one possible interpretation of their support for Zuma is that if they can sell people on the idea of a judicial conspiracy charging corruption for politicians they want to get rid of, then they can try to use the same conspiracy to get out of facing their own corruption charges.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Mon Feb 24, 2020 1:01 pm 
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