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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 09, 2020 12:49 pm 
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Mostly really scant. And if they could find someone like that, it wouldn't make it's way up the chain. Too many states would have to be flipped in gross disregard to the actual votes, and that's not something you're going to find large numbers of judges wanting to be party to when it's too likely to fail.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:05 am 
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Uh oh. More signs that the Republicans are closing ranks around Trump, again. Barr has given prosecutors the go-ahead to "investigate" claims of "voter fraud". Mitch McConnell has started sowing doubt about the election results. They intend to ride the Trump Train to the end of the crazy line.

You're probably right that they won't be able to find enough judges to support a naked power grab(1), and they may not be able to stop Biden from being inaugurated, but i bet they will make a big show of boycotting it. They're signaling that they think a viable electoral strategy is to claim that Biden's an illegitimate president and use that as a convenient excuse to hobble his administration (1) and threaten to shut down the government every other week. Because Biden is a TYRANT who HATES DEMOCRACY!!!111!!ooxoxEr!!!!

To the base, it won't matter how many extra states Biden wins or by what margins or how many judges throw out Giuliani's lawsuits; every dismissal of the conspiracy is evidence that the conspiracy is even bigger than you previously imagined. That's how conspiracies work, and Mitch still finds them useful.

(1) But I'm not so confident about the top of the chain: three Supreme Court Justices are ex Bush lawyers from Bush vs. Gore.
(2) E.g. refuse to approve any of his cabinet appointments. Force Biden to make recess appointments. Screech that every secretary was illegitimately appointed.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 3:54 pm 
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Puerto Rico has passed their statehood referendum. It might take marginalizing Senator Manchin, but if the Democrats take both Georgia seats then they're in the immediate position to add two states to the Union (and four Democrats to the Senate). Not that that thought would ever even consider dreaming of crossing their minds. But that's pretty much why the Republicans are sticking with Trump's lies; they don't dare alienate any of the pinheads in his base who rarely vote before next January lest they stay home.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:17 pm 
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I'm not actually worried the election will be stolen. That would lead to a civil war, and I don't think anyone except the true lunatic fringe really wants that.

But isn't catering to Trump's base right now a losing strategy? I don't see why the GOP doesn't concede the presidential race, and immediately pivot to "that's why it's so crucial we keep the Senate!"

Fighting the election will just keep the Dems riled up, and the Trump base isn't the majority, even in Georgia.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 11, 2020 10:30 pm 
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They aren't, but a lot of his base don't bother to vote much. Unless they turn out, then even with all the Republican voter suppression and election fraud it's pretty much a gimme for the Democrats: it's hard to figure out what is going to excite the Democratic base, especially the black Democratic base, more than the prospect of taking the Senate by sending a black man there. And let's not forget that Stacey Abrams is very good at what she does.

Side note: I threw a few bucks at her organization for the special election. Seems to have a fair chance of helping; and doing charity wholesale by helping the Democrats take the Senate is a much more cost effective way to feed the hungry (my usual) than letting the Republicans win and having to do it retail.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 12:51 am 
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Quote:
But isn't catering to Trump's base right now a losing strategy? I don't see why the GOP doesn't concede the presidential race, and immediately pivot to "that's why it's so crucial we keep the Senate!"


That's why I think it's about more than winning the run-off in Georgia. I think Mitch's setting himself up to sabotage Biden by keeping the base riled up even without Trump. He would be able to justify every trick from blocking nominees to keep the Biden administration starved of talent, to monkeying with the civil service rules to make Trump appointees unfireable. He could block all of Biden's judges, hold up a coronavirus rescue package (suddenly rediscovering fiscal conservatism), go back to debt ceiling brinkmanship, repeatedly threaten shutdowns. He'd sabotage pandemic response measures, watch the deaths pile up, and then blame Biden for it.

Because if Mitch has learned anything over the last decade, it's that you can't let yourself be outflanked by the base. The moderates and independents are unreliable, but some of them might eventually come back if the leadership goes back to more subtle dog whistles. But lose the base and you're finished. So he's gotta nudge nudge wink wink that Biden's not a real president. It's another version of Barack Obama being a secret Kenyan plant.

Edit: Mitch, not Mitt. D'oh.
Edit 2: was trying to respond to kitoba, and copied and pasted the wrong paragraph entirely into a quote box.


Last edited by Passiflora on Thu Nov 12, 2020 5:15 am, edited 3 times in total.
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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:46 am 
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I guess some republicans want to set themself up to become the next Trump and therefore go for "I did fight the good fight, until the establishment backstabbed us". So essentially they are virtue signaling for far right values of virtue.

And some might simply want to go with the republican crowd, and thus wait for other to abandon Trump first.

And populism generally works better if you are in opposition, so some might make the calculation, that the chances for them to keep their position are better, if the democrats win the Georgia senate seats.

And as long as Trump throws a tantrum, there probably is no real undisputed leadership, that can steer rank and file republicans to do things that are good for the republican common good.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 12, 2020 10:19 pm 
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Passiflora wrote:
I think Mitch's setting himself up to sabotage Biden by keeping the base riled up even without Trump.


I don't know if this works against Biden. Maybe if it was President Harris. But so much of the animating energy behind that was driven by racism --the fear that a black president might be successful, and what does that mean for the white man.

Biden is much less threatening. I don't think the energy for obstructionism is going to be there in the immediate future --assuming Biden stays healthy.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 1:45 am 
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I don't think it would matter if Biden were a clone of Mr. Rogers. It's a simple calculation for Mitch McConnell. Cooperating with Biden means that Biden gets most of the credit and the base screams at you for selling out. Sabotage him, and Biden possibly gets the blame.

It's precisely because Biden is an old white man that "election thief" is going to be the best way to demonize him. They can't call him a scary foreigner, "socialist" didn't really stick, "nepotistic crook" couldn't gain traction because uh, Ivanka and Jared, "doddering fool" looked dumb next to Trump, so "cheater" it will be. The base is a group of people who want to believe the worst about any Democrat. They'll buy it. (Plus Trump will spend the next forever on the right wing talk show circuit complaining about how the election was stolen from him.)

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:00 am 
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They already had the line of "Biden is senile and controlled by the scary second row" before the election. They can keep that.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:55 am 
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Inmates in a New York (or Federal) prison don't get to do pressers or interviews unless they're given permission. Trump has more immediate worries than his dynasty come January.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 13, 2020 10:14 pm 
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Passiflora wrote:
I don't think it would matter if Biden were a clone of Mr. Rogers. It's a simple calculation for Mitch McConnell. Cooperating with Biden means that Biden gets most of the credit and the base screams at you for selling out. Sabotage him, and Biden possibly gets the blame.


I wouldn't put anything past Mitch. But I just don't see the rank & file summoning the level of unreasonable hatred for Biden that they had for Obama. You don't understand how everything in America goes back to race.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2020 11:43 am 
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BTW if Trump really does not want to leave, there should be an easy solution. You wait until he goes to Mar a Lago, then take the whitehouse and lock him out. Should be a walk in the golf course.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 14, 2020 11:41 pm 
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Weremensh wrote:
Inmates in a New York (or Federal) prison don't get to do pressers or interviews unless they're given permission. Trump has more immediate worries than his dynasty come January.

I wish the prosecutors of New York the best of luck but these cases take a long time. Rich guys like Trump don't get denied bail so he'll be running around loose for a while yet.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Nov 15, 2020 11:07 am 
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Trump has told his Scotland golf course to get ready for an extended stay by the Trump family come January. He's an imminent flight risk, and it will be a judge looking to lose his gig that grants him bail in the less than billion dollar range. Besides, those cases are probably rather simplified when the proof he lied about the value of his property is his own sworn valuation on another document.

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