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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:19 am 
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I guess the religious right only played any real role, because the authoritarians did not have a better bandwagon to jump on back then. And now they find out, they are no longer riding the tiger.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2016 2:01 pm 
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To make things more interesting, here's a somewhat conflicting study.

In this poll, Trump, Cruz and Rubio's supporters all score fairly highly in authoritarianism. Actually Cruz is slightly worse than Trump.

But Trump's supporters differ in that they're authoritarian and populist. They hate elites, they don't trust experts, and are also strong nationalists. Cruz and Rubio's supporters distrust experts and are nationalist to varying degrees but they aren't anti-elite; they're comfortable with the establishment.

On the Democratic side, Bernie's supporters are very anti-elite, but they don't share a mistrust of experts, they like science and wonkery. They also are the opposite of nationalistic and authoritarian.

Hillary's supporters are more middle of the road. Kasich's supporters look more similar to Hillary's than the other Republican candidates. I suppose you could say Hillary and Kasich's supporters are the most mainstream.

Edit: It appears that the difference between the two studies is that the first controlled for demographic factors like age, income and religiosity, but the second one didn't. So I guess this means Trump supporters are more authoritarian than you would expect given their demographic backgrounds, but aren't the most authoritarian in general.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 22, 2016 10:17 am 
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So Cruz and Rubio speak for authoritarians, who have their authoritarianism interwoven with ideology and who believe, if people with the right ideology rule, things will be ok, while Trump speaks for plain authoritarians, without ideological bells and whistles.

Given we have Trump, Cruz and Rubio supporters as authoritarians, and given how much of the vote they get, that speaks for authoritarianism being the common bracket of the republican party.

It's probably worth to note, that the article defines populism somewhat different then what i am used to. I am used " bread and games* policy, usually games heavy, even when it is not sustainable, or when the connection between proposed measuers and intended outcome is spurious"

This usually goes along well with nationalism and opposition to elites and experts, but i would not consider any of that neccessary.

* where i count, pushing around other countries to proove the strength of your own, under games.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 23, 2016 4:48 am 
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I am not a statistician, nor do I play one on TV, but what I think this means is that the Republican party is pretty thick with authoritarians in general, but the ones flocking to Trump are a more demographically mixed bunch of people and the thing they have most in common with each other is that they're authoritarian.

It's well-known that many evangelical Christian churches subscribe to very strict parenting philosophies. And since Cruz is a religious ideologue who appeals to evangelical Christians, it's not that surprising that a lot of Cruz's supporters value obedience in children more than curiosity or independence or consideration for others. There's also separate research in the child development field that finds that working class parents have more top-down parenting styles than middle and upper-class parents. Whether that's because of education or culture or simply that stressed-out survival-focused people want their kids to shut up and be quiet for ten minutes, that's what you see. And we already know that white working class people form a large part of the Republican base. I guess that's what you see in Rubio's fans. But Trump's supporters, they support him because they're paranoid angry dickheads.

And yeah, their definition of populism was a bit odd. I guess they're trying to define it as a psychological attitude not tied to support for any particular policies like welfare or wars, so I guess they focused on the the basics of identifying with the common person and hating elites.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2016 12:26 pm 
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So the republican esteblishment seems to support Cruz now.

Does that mean:
They actually prefere Cruz to Trump
They figure thats the best way to a contested convention, where they can use one of their own instead of Trump and Cruz.
They figure thats the best way to a contested convention, where they can bribe either Trump or Cruz to do their bidding, when elected.
They figure Trump is inevitable as candidate anyway and will loose anyway, so they prepare for getting Cruzs base for an establishment candidate next time.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2016 10:52 am 
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If you want to know how the Republican establishment feels, examine the "endorsement" for Cruz by Sen. Lindsay Graham. He came out on the record saying that the choice between Cruz and Trump was like the choice between being shot or poisoned in January. Now, he supports Cruz as a way of stopping Trump, and seems to be convinced that his party simply cannot win the Presidency in 2016 with who is left and thinks that Cruz is the only way to stop the Trump bleeding.

It's not about 2016 anymore; it's about keeping the orangutan from smashing the place to the ground.

As repugnant as they find Cruz, he's a tool that can be used to that end. I think they get him nominated over Trump at a contested convention, then let him hang in the wind in the general knowing he's simply unable to win it against a centrist like Hillary. They will use their money to fight down-ticket races like Senate and House seats in order to try and keep Congress red.

I don't think anyone with half a brain in their head wants to be the straw man set up this fall knowing what they're up against. Paul Ryan doesn't want it, he's young and knows he's likely to get a much better shot a few years from now. I know that Kasich is hanging on hoping the straw man will be him, but even he has far, far too many flaws in his resume to beat the Dems this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2016 5:45 pm 
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If they are sure this presidental election is lost anyway, would it not be a better move to take a "i support the primary winner out of party loyality even if i think he is not such a good idea" and make sure, they can not be made responsible for the presidental campain, neither shaping it, not sabotaging it.

Then Trump has a harder time looking like a martyr when he looses, and they antagonize any primary voters in a serious way.

Basically give Trump enough rope to hang himself and they go "Told you so".

Or do they fear, Trump might actually win the election?

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2016 10:49 pm 
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What they're afraid of is what this orange haired orangutan will say during the campaign to make them look like misogynistic, xenophobic, un-American asshats as a party. As he loses by double digits. This man is a slow acting poison for them that will hang around for years. The sooner he leaves the big stage, the better for them.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2016 5:09 pm 
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I think the plan is to support Cruz now, as the best chance of denying Trump the nomination outright, and then turn on him at the convention. Of course, they don't want to come out and say that.

As far as why not support Trump: With friends like those, who needs enemies? He's a reflection of the worst aspects in the party, and he's drawing support from a narrow and extremist demographic at a time when the GOP desperately needs to widen and diversify its support.

As an aside, here's an essay I wrote about Plato and Trump: http://popculturephilosopher.com/democr ... s-tyranny/

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Apr 05, 2016 11:15 am 
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They seem to maneuver themselfs into a bad position. That are scenarios i see:

1) Trump gets the nomination, they publically have lost.
1a) Trump wins, and after having demonstrated that he does not need them he will be hardly controlable.
1b) Trump looses and they will have to deal with Tump and Tumpists explaining the defeat, with party internal backstabbing.

2) Someone else gets nominated and runs with the stain of being there only due to backroom politics. That someone needs to compensate for disapointed Trump fans, who stay home and it's unlikely that they find someone, who can get both Cruz supporters and centrists.
2a) That someone wins as unlikely as it is. It's likely that Trump and Trumists go third party next time.
2b) That someone looses. Trump and Trumpists will maintain that they would have won.

I still think they would be in a better position in the middle and long run, if they take a position like "I respect the wishes of the primary voters, even if i disagree with them" and when Trump says something offensive go for something like: "I can't say for sure, because i am not part of Mr Trumps inner circle, but propably he has means something like <something perfectly sensible and harmless, that has some vague connection to what Trump said, but what he most definitly did not mean>". And wait for the inevitable trainwreck to happen and then come out of the cover as someone who is in no way responsible.

But then republicans, like rightwingers in general, tend to fail to appreciate indirect approaches, especially when they involve to tactically show weakness, in many areas like foreign policy and crime. So i guess they are consistent enough, to also not use it in party internal conflicts.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 3:58 am 
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If Trump loses the nomination, is there still time for him to switch boats and go third-party?

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 6:25 am 
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AFAIK he can in some states and not in others.

But he definitly can do it in 4 years.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Apr 07, 2016 4:18 pm 
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CCC wrote:
If Trump loses the nomination, is there still time for him to switch boats and go third-party?

Not really. Deadlines for registration to get on the ballot happen in some states before the convention. Unless he's already doing it as a contingency, he won't have enough time to get on the ballot in all states.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 9:42 am 
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Okay, so it's a pretty firm barrier, then - if he fails to be nominated, he has to sit out for the next four years.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 8:27 pm 
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Pretty firm. Probably firm enough.

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