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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Sep 16, 2024 5:57 pm 
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One of his buddies, the editor of the National Review, did just that during an interview; he started to pronounce 'migrant' as if the first three letters were nig, then caught himself and started over.

Oh, and one thing puzzles me. A man was arrested in Florida for having an AK on Trump's golf course, and was eventually charged with two illegal gun counts. The thing is this: how? It's legal to walk around with a Kalashnikov in Florida, and he never fired a shot. Eh, I guess they felt they had to charge him with something.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Sep 17, 2024 1:47 am 
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Heh. Florida man aims gun at Florida man. Maybe he should be asking why his former supporters want to shoot him.

Of course he's made cat-eating a full blown wingnut campaign issue, complete with bomb and mass shooting threats. Governor of Ohio's sending the National Guard to Springfield to protect schools. Honestly wonder what the local Republican pols are making of all of this.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 19, 2024 11:44 pm 
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Trump's blog has been cratering all week, and the total volume so far is about 6 million shares. But thanks to some sugar daddy pumping it up, and his lie that he isn't about to dump it, it's still above $12 a share as of close tonight; so tomorrow he can start to sell his 115 million shares.

The problem is that his blog has been cratering all week, and the total volume so far is about 6 million shares. If over a hundred million shares hit the market tomorrow, then it's instant penny stock time and he's wiped out. So to cash out before the election without killing it himself, he has to dump an average of 2.5 million shares every day without anyone noticing; all the while watching the price drop and lower the value of what's left. Good luck.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Sep 20, 2024 2:42 pm 
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You know, I was annoyed back at the beginning of the year; my political bingo card has a square labeled 'black Nazi costs Trump North Carolina', and I figured that was utterly absurd. But now...

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 04, 2024 10:31 am 
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For those who have missed it: Trump and his accomplices on the Supreme Court successfully pushed this back to October. It's Jack Smith's filing, and all the redactions can easily be undone by checking the various press outlets who've filled in all the blanks.

My nomination for the picture opposite the definition for this mess would be this: when Trump was handed a note about his little minion getting herself shot during the putsch, he immediately threw it away and went back to watching his plan unfold on TV.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 08, 2024 2:22 pm 
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Apparently one of the October Surprises is just how badly the Republicans can deliberately screw up the response to their hurricanes. And yes, at this point it's their hurricanes; nature doesn't do this kind of thing unassisted. We've gone from one Cat 4-5 hurricane every 7 years to two in one month. Yeesh.

Anyway, this is an interesting vote counting site. They count early votes cast; and break it down by where, who, and etc (to the extent possible). It's probably worth a glace every so often for the next month.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Oct 18, 2024 6:26 pm 
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It's not a great surprise, I guess; but there's a lot of garbage polls out there right now from the Republicans, and 538 is including them. Because obviously a bunch of pollsters with no history, all of which agree with Trump's in-house pollster, are fully credible and worthy of being averaged in.

But more credibly: Jimmy Carter voted. At 100, after about 20 months in hospice care. I have to suspect he meant it. And with a federal judge now telling the Georgia GOP to shove it when it comes to certifying vote totals, it looks like his vote will count. Who could ask for anything more.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Oct 22, 2024 2:06 am 
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I can't wait for this ***hole to go down.

I'm keeping all my digits crossed; anecdotally it looks like the voter enthusiasm is on the Harris side, and that the Trump ground game is hot garbage. But anything can happen and I'm not expecting the Democrats to hold the Senate.

Please let this be over. I don't think I can handle being a citizen of TWO authoritarian nations.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 30, 2024 11:08 pm 
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Well, aside from the little issue of the 'island of garbage' official statement by his campaign (and anything else similar that will arise); it's about 2/3 Harris vs 1/3 Trump right now. The known knowns all say the polls are overweighting his chances, but not by enough to make this a reasonable certainty; and she's banking a fair sized lead in early voting.

Eh, we'll find out.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 31, 2024 6:03 am 
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I'm dreading a repeat of 2016 where Harris wins the popular vote but Trump wins the electoral college. Jill Stein might be a real problem in Michigan, where Harris support was already soft due to the war in Gaza.

I've already voted, for all the good that does. I'm registered in an overwhelmingly blue state, so my vote's just a drop in the wasted votes bucket.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 02, 2024 12:03 pm 
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I know that feeling all too well. But since the Republicans can't win the popular vote, the Popular Vote Compact is an uphill struggle.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Nov 02, 2024 10:29 pm 
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Amusing to me, anyway: according to Ann Selzer, Harris is up 3 in Iowa. Now she's pretty much the goddess of Iowa pollsters: she's the only one who got it right when Trump won the state easily in 2020 (a few days before the election she said he was up 7, and he won by 8), and was the first to see that he was going to win that state in 2016 as well. She was also the pollster who correctly called the state for Obama, during the primaries back in the day. And while statistical flukes happen, this isn't too out of line with some of the other polls we're seeing from supposedly safely red regions in the midwest where Trump is seriously underperforming (Kansas and Ohio).

And if it's true; then Harris winning all of the Blue Wall states and the presidency is a lot more likely than 2 in 3.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 12:34 pm 
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I guess this is the point during the campaign where I have to post this, now:
Image


Image
Image

I will not provide any further context.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 8:38 am 
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So apparently 83 million of us voted in person, or had their absentee ballots received, by yesterday. Which bids fair to be more than half the total ballots cast. Now to ignore the news reports trying to sound like they know more than we knew yesterday. At least until situationally important polls start closing tonight, like Georgia and North Carolina. Who knows, we could have a fair idea of how grim the next few days will be by midnight.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 12:09 am 
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Looks like Iowa is not only much redder than Selzer thought, but all the other pollsters seriously underestimated how red it would be as well. I imagine cover stories are being dusted off as I type.

Otherwise? It's currently within the realm of possible that Trump will get all 7 swing states (his 2016 result, fwiw). Harris can still win, but is behind at the moment; and how much of that is the red shift is anyone's guess. And with the white guy being a lot more palatable than the black woman to folks in New York and California, at least compared to the previous white guy; it's also entirely possible Trump can even get a popular vote win.

This country has some serious structural issues.

Farther down: the Senate not flipping Republican is now just this side of impossible, as the Republicans already have two pickups; though the House has a fair chance of flipping Democratic as well. That'd be fun.

Edit: and before I hit post, the Republicans took the Senate. At best, we're now looking at the joys of divided government.

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