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 Post Posted: Wed Apr 19, 2023 7:29 pm 
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That story about the T-54s is pretty much pure copium. They've got enough light trucks to haul around some anti-tank guns that they don't need to be undergoing the massive expense of trying to make a baby boomer tank run and finding the four trained crew needed to fight in it. Especially if you consider just how many trucks it takes to make a tank unit run, and further consider that they could always just attach the AT guns to an armored transport like the MT-LB to turn it into the WW-II equivalent of a self-propelled gun.

As for the offensive? Rather unlike the Russian zerg rush of the last four months, I suspect it'll take 'having their ducks in a row' into account. So it might be pending some of the armor coming into country getting the new camo paint and such like.

One thing I did see mentioned which struck me as interesting; the suggestion that a good deal of American reticence to give the Ukrainians long range strike assets isn't that the Americans give a damn about Putin, but they're worried about Xi. The escalation they're trying to avoid is China becoming the sugar daddy of the Russian army and more or less making their ammo shortages go away. It could well be part of what's going on.

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 Post Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2023 12:20 pm 
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I heard that the Russian trucks are just dumping off their artillery crews in the middle of fields and driving away because they're needed for other deliveries, they can't afford to park there until they're needed to make a getaway. And also that it takes about the same number of people to man a heavy artillery gun as it does to man a tank, you just have to teach one of them to drive the thing. Maybe the source I heard this from is wrong, there's plenty of military hardware otaku who only half know what they're talking about, but they certainly have no love for Putin.

Trying not to push Xi closer to Putin is an understandable goal, but I don't know. Xi is gonna Xi. Whatever is going on in his brain, most of it isn't about NATO. His domestic prestige is the main consideration, and Putin a slightly useless sidekick in that regard. I have heard the suggestion that Xi is going to dangle some token assistance in front of Putin to get access to Russian military tech (an offer that Putin cannot refuse), but does Moscow even have anything more advanced than Beijing anymore?

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 Post Posted: Thu Apr 20, 2023 1:13 pm 
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At a bare minimum, an anti-tank/improvised field artillery gun needs only one properly trained member of the crew; the rest can be untrained mobiks who only know how to carry shells. Tanks need a bare minimum of three trained crew or they're essentially useless in combat; the driver, the gunner, and the commander. Older Soviet tanks, like the T-62 or T-54, have a crew of four; but the other is a loader who doesn't have to be much better trained than the gun bunnies.

Just FWIW: I saw a video yesterday of two of those AT guns and a couple of trucks getting shelled. It's possible that the Ukrainians caught them while they were delivering ammo (though two truck loads of shells would be very excessive); but it seems more likely that in at least some units those guns have dedicated haulers.

As for Xi: I think what's supposed to be motivating him is that if Moscow gets too badly defeated and humiliated then the odds of their empire breaking up increase. A bunch of nuclear armed successor states fighting various wars on his border is more of a hassle than he'd need, even if it means China can try to undo certain treaties they signed with the Tsar.

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 Post Posted: Sat Apr 22, 2023 10:46 pm 
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I read that Ukraine has just gotten access to the NATO procurement system (NSPA). Which means that they can directly request equipment from any of the member states, and the US or the Ukraine fund will pick up the bill if it's available. No more public notice is needed than would be if Denmark asked Italy for shells.

It's not impossible for this to be a backdoor for supplying fighters. That would be interesting.

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 Post Posted: Mon Apr 24, 2023 2:35 am 
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I don't think NATO wants a collapsed Russia any more than Xi does. Europe already has more refugees than they can deal with.

Anyway, Wagner Group prison recruits who didn't get killed are "graduating" back into society, with about the results you'd expect when you turn a bunch of hardened criminals with PTSD loose with no supervision or follow-up. Prigozhin's clout, plus a brand new law that makes it illegal to criticize the Wagner group makes these guys practically untouchable when they go on to commit violent crimes short of murder.

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 Post Posted: Fri May 12, 2023 7:29 pm 
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I can't help but suspect that the people made most thoughtful by a Patriot missile apparently shooting down a hypersonic cruise missile are the folks sitting in Beijing.

And if the current local successes against the Russian lines are simply the result of the ground drying and some modern IFVs showing up against what's left of the Russian army, then a full scale assault against that same worn out army probably has a reasonable chance of quite significant successes indeed.

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 Post Posted: Mon May 15, 2023 4:13 am 
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Was this a fully operational, working as intended hypersonic missile? Or was it one of those by now classic Russian military kludges that they got into the air with duct tape and chicken wire?

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 Post Posted: Tue May 16, 2023 2:49 pm 
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If it's actually flying mach many, it pretty much has to have the hull and the engine right. Though now they've supposedly shot down half a dozen more (out of half a dozen); it looks like a class of missile that will be rather hard to fit with penetration aids will be needing to find them anyway.

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 Post Posted: Sun May 21, 2023 3:23 pm 
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Supposedly the Wagner forces in Bakhmut will be pulling out later this week to go loot in Africa, while the regular army comes in to relieve them in holding the city. If that happens without it blowing up in their faces then I strongly suspect the regular army officer who makes it happen will need to worry more about Putin than a Ukrainian guided missile strike. Clearly he's too good at his job to be tolerated by a Chekist kleptocracy.

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 Post Posted: Mon May 22, 2023 3:47 pm 
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Now poor Oryx has to make a list of Russian equipment lost during the Russian attack on Russia. Whatever else you might say for it, the attack towards Belgorod is a first rate piece of military trolling.

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 Post Posted: Wed Jun 07, 2023 3:04 am 
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So Russia blew up the dam in a last ditch effort to stall the counter-offensive. If mud is a hindrance to the Ukrainian advance, well, on top of all the horrible devastation, everywhere's thigh deep in mud now.

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 Post Posted: Fri Jun 23, 2023 6:51 pm 
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It looks like the Russian Ministry of Defense (or basically their leadership) has decided to go after Wagner to shut it down, and failed. If so, the implications are going to be interesting (as will be what's basically a budding civil war).

At a minimum, the fighting in Rostov would shut down the supply chain to Crimea completely. What with their losses of munitions and destroyed bridges behind the line, it's going to be interesting to see how much longer the Russian troops on the line actually can burn the munitions and men they need to seriously contest the Ukrainian offensive going forward.

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 Post Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 3:24 am 
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weremensh wrote:
It looks like the Russian Ministry of Defense (or basically their leadership) has decided to go after Wagner to shut it down, and failed. If so, the implications are going to be interesting (as will be what's basically a budding civil war).

At a minimum, the fighting in Rostov would shut down the supply chain to Crimea completely. What with their losses of munitions and destroyed bridges behind the line, it's going to be interesting to see how much longer the Russian troops on the line actually can burn the munitions and men they need to seriously contest the Ukrainian offensive going forward.

Yeah, it looks like, somehow, Ukraine's strategy to hold to Bakhmut has paid more dividends back than expected...

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 Post Posted: Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:39 pm 
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So Wagner's withdrawing from Rostov to 'military bases'. Or so we hear. Tune in tomorrow for our next episode of 'Huh?'!

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 Post Posted: Tue Jun 27, 2023 1:59 am 
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Well that was confusing. What we know:
- Putin was planning to fold Wagner into the regular military.
- Prigozhin claims his guys were fired upon by Russian troops.
- Prigozhin launches a rebellion, takes Rostov without resistance.
- Says he's gonna march on Moscow and replace the government.
- Enters emergency negotiations brokered by the dictator of Belarus.
- Calls the coup off.
- Bugs off to possibly Belarus???
- Wagner troops not prosecuted.

I'm having difficulty understanding how anybody can threaten Putin, fail and/or quit halfway, and still be breathing.

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