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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2022 3:29 am 
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weremensh wrote:
From what I've heard of Dubai it's very much a 'never seen a billionaire criminal they didn't like' kind of place. Making them feel unwelcome isn't very high on the government's 'to do' list; so unless these two Guptas have seriously offended exactly the wrong people, South Africa may not want to start holding it's breath just yet.


This is why the Guptas went there in the first place when Zuma lost power, yes...

We still don't know what charges they were arrested on, or who they may or may not have offended. Our national prosecuting authority is putting in the paperwork asking for extradition, but news media has already pointed out how there's no way they'll get extradited if they have the right allies in the Dubai political scene.

For what it's worth, given just how deeply their corruption ran, whether or not they are extradited is going to affect our entire national perception of Dubai; also, our government is probably going to be willing to push quite hard for extradition. None of which will help if the Guptas have close allies amongst Dubai politicians, but hopefully it'll tip the scales a bit if Dubai is neutral towards them.

Also, relevant article

Dodger77 wrote:
How many Gupta brothers are there?


I believe there are three, but their criminal empire extends further than just their siblings.

Well.

There are at least three.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Mon Jun 27, 2022 7:29 am 
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So. The Zondo Commission has now given its final report, detailing exactly how a whole lot of corruption, bribery, and so forth went down. A lot of this is being laid at the feet of former president Jacob Zuma, who, as noted previously in this thread, spent his entire Presidency being enormously corrupt while also taking down any institutions meant to work against corruption.

How does Zuma react?

He promptly attempts legal action against the Commission's report.

As far as I can tell, his basis is that Zondo always hated him, never liked him, and is thus terribly biased against Zuma, as can be proved by the fact that he found against Zuma in his report. Also, Zuma thinks that Zondo finding that the fact that Zuma was mysteriously and suddenly found to be too ill to spend any more time in jail (for not turning up to court) somewhat suspicious was clearly an example of anti-Zuma bias.

Or, in other words, Zuma seems to be trying to say that anyone who doesn't let him go on all counts is clearly biased against him and should never stand in judgement over him.

I don't think that there is any expectation that this will succeed. It's merely another in Zuma's incredibly long history of delaying tactics. (At this point, I suspect he's trying to delay for the rest of his life).

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Thu Oct 20, 2022 5:11 am 
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Delays continue to pile up. Zuma is prosecuting the prosecutor of the case against him for, apparently, being biased against him. He's also prosecuting one of the journalists who have been covering the case for, as best as I can determine, telling everyone about the case.

It's got to the point now that the judge has actually asked both sides in the court case to please present any reasons they might have why he should recuse himself from the case, in what looks to me like an attempt to make sure to get the "The Judge Must Recuse Himself" application out of the way as soon as possible, rather than waiting for it to arrive at the worst possible time.

...and we still have not yet gotten to the part of the trial where evidence actually gets presented.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 22, 2022 2:01 am 
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So, here's a bit of a wrinkle.

A while back, Zuma decided to just not turn up for his court date. (He didn't claim that he didn't know, he just didn't turn up). He then tried to claim that he couldn't be jailed for contempt of court, due to not having been in court to argue his case when that decision was arrived at (because, you see, he hadn't turned up). The court in question was very unimpressed, and gave him a fifteen-month prison sentence for contempt of court, i.e. not turning up.

Just about one month after going to jail, he was let out for reasons of "medical parole". Now, technically, medical parole is only supposed to apply if you are literally at death's door and unable to care for yourself. There's a medical review board, which denied Zuma's medical parole. They were then overturned by the (at the time) prisons commissioner, who just arbitrarily said to let Zuma go.

So Zuma left, and has since been seen quite active and showing no signs of being at death's door.

As is quite understandable, a number of people were rather aggrieved by this. A journalist went to find out exactly how many times the prisons commissioner overrode the medical review board like that - under terms of the Promotion Of Access to Information Act, he could find out the number of times but not the names of the people involved. Over the period in question, the medical review board had apparently denied one hundred requests for medical parole, and the commissioner had overridden them... once.

So. There have been appeals, and legal arguments, and so on and so forth. And, just yesterday, the Supreme Court of Appeal handed down the judgement that Zuma's medical parole was unjust, illegal, and unconstitutional. The recommendations of the medical advisory board should have held.

We have yet to see whether or not Zuma will serve those remaining fourteen months in prison.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 3:25 am 
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This Zuma sounds like a tricky fellow...

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 23, 2022 5:23 am 
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Incredibly so.

In 2005, Schabir Shaik was found guilty of corruption for, basically, arranging a bribe for Zuma. (In 2009, Shaik got medical parole, on the grounds the he was terminally ill and he could at least be allowed to die with dignity, outside of jail. He's still alive.) Zuma has still, to this day, not been convicted for his part in that. Those are the charges that are still being pursued against him.

And, already, the Jacob Zuma Foundation is claiming that he shouldn't go back to jail. "Oh, but this whole medical parole mess, he did nothing wrong!" they claim. No, it was a prison official and an independent doctor that found him eligible for parole - since they were the ones who did wrong, surely Zuma shouldn't be punished for it? Besides, his original fifteen-month term expired on 7 October, and that is past, so...

The Jacob Zuma Foundation has not yet been seen to claim that Zuma can walk on water and heal the sick, but I imagine that they're ready to do so if said claims are ever to Zuma's advantage.

Despite their claims, it seems that there isn't really much choice. It has been made clear that he's not eligible for medical parole, and apparently that's the only type of parole that can be granted until a quarter of the sentence has been served.

Of course, Zuma is going to try to appeal this to the Constitutional Court, and string out a few delays... his legal team are proving masters of delay tactics. But I think that a few months in jail will be very hard to escape, at this point. (Mind you, I also expect him to try to force parole the moment his one-quarter-sentence is complete).

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Thu Nov 24, 2022 4:52 am 
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...and here comes the other shoe. Apparently the Department of Correctional Services, who run the prisons, are challenging the court ruling that Zuma's medical parole isn't valid.

Considering that they're the people who are supposed to do something about that ruling, it seems clear that nothing's going to happen until this challenge is resolved, one way or another.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 29, 2022 12:47 pm 
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Sounds like the current government is way behind on replacing everyone from Zuma's circle from their posts.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:31 am 
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I figure -
1. There's probably way too many of them to fire them all.
2. It isn't worth pissing them off more, especially since they're still part of the same political party, and their support is needed come election time.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 01, 2022 3:43 am 
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That is, indeed, a very large part of the problem.

And... well, I can see why it would be difficult. Zuma has extended his corrupt tentacles everywhere. He has... friends... in all sorts of places, who are willing to go quite far for him. (Personally, I suspect that Zuma has a significant quantity of blackmail material).

Moreover, Ramaphosa merely ousted Zuma as the head of the ANC. He's still got to work with the same underlying party. Now, he has managed to oust a few of Zuma's worst supporters... but that's nowhere near all of them. And one of the troubles is that you never know whether or not you are being lied to - and Zuma was very careful to remove any internal structures that weren't sympathetic to him. If you remove one such structure - who do you find to replace the ousted people? What is that person's opinion on the whole mess?

I don't think we can possibly get right out of this until we elect somebody else in the place of the ANC. Our next election is in 2024...

Passiflora, I imagine that your Reason number 1 is the major one; it's worth noting that the ANC lost support every election in the Zuma years, and may get under half the vote in the 2024 elections as a direct consequence. (The Zuma hardliners are hardliners, but they're not half the population)

--------------

In the meantime, the guy who let Zuma go with that medical parole is now getting sued for it. But Zuma's supporters are starting to get all worked up again... there's going to be an awful lot of yelling and screaming on the streets when Zuma goes back to jail. (We had riots in two provinces the last time, which - well, there are indications that Zuma's allies had deliberately encouraged those riots, and I imagine they might be trying for something similar this time, in the hopes of putting forth the idea that Zuma can't be jailed).

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 02, 2022 8:25 am 
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Okay. I think we can now see where Zuma's counter-attack is coming in.

So. Let's take a moment to look at Cyril Ramaphosa. For a while now, there's been what looked, to me, like a deliberately manufactured scandal hanging over him. To wit, apparently someone broke in to his farm a while back and stole a large amount of foreign currency. (The size of this amount has been... remarkably inconsistent, depending on who is speaking)

Now, no-one's blaming him for the theft. He was the victim there, and no more. But... why did he have several thousand in foreign currency on his farm to start with? Except for some vague idea that he might have been hiding it from the tax officials, there doesn't seem to be any firm idea of what's going on. (Ramaphosa claims it was the proceeds from the sale of livestock, which seems - not unreasonable).

Also, there's the matter of reporting the crime. Ramaphosa says he told the head of his protection detail, but apparently that wasn't who he was supposed to tell, and someone is apparently being quite specific on the letter of the rules. (I kind of wish we'd seen more of this back when Zuma blatantly used state funds to buy himself a new swimming pool).

What with all of this, and Ramaphosa's push towards getting rid of corruption, there's now a strong push inside the ANC to get rid of Ramaphosa. And... the ANC is having their electoral conference this month (specifically, 16-20 December). Ramaphosa has a lot of nominations behind his presidency, far more than anyone else... but, as per a rule that Ramaphosa has pushed heavily during his leadership, anyone under investigation for "serious crimes" is required to step aside from any ANC elections. And if he does step aside... then who will the next president of the ANC be, I wonder? (And, relatedly, how quickly will he try to drop all charges against Zuma and give him an apology, and presumably a gift basket along with it?)

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