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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 13, 2021 10:09 am 
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The other shoe has started to drop. Massive riots in Kwazulu-Natal (where most of Zuma's support base is) and Gauteng (where most of the government can be found), with a certain amount of clamouring to 'free Zuma'. I suspect that some of Zuma's 'associates' are deliberately encouraging this sort of thing.

Couple of hundred violent protestors have been arrested (for, you know, violently protesting) but I feel that the intent is clear here; Zuma's trying to arrange a situation where he cannot be safely imprisoned.

Fortunately for the rest of us, I don't think Ramaphosa's particularly inclined to bend, right now. Partly because Zuma is very very much the sort to take a mile if given an inch. If he gets out of jail early, he will take full advantage of the idea of unjailability.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Tue Jul 13, 2021 3:43 pm 
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One wonders if someone is considering whether or not he should be shot while trying to escape, or commit suicide...

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Wed Jul 14, 2021 7:37 am 
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Zuma never struck me as the suicidal sort. If he dies in jail - for any reason - it will immediately be blamed on President Ramaphosa (along with the CIA, America and/or Europe in general, people of different skin colours, and a pick of other wild conspiracy theories).

He'd be a martyr, and things will very quickly get worse.

...in newer news, social media posts stay around and can be taken, after the fact, as evidence to court cases. Two of Zuma's (many) children, and one theoretically opposed politician, are going to have to answer difficult court questions about whether or not they deliberately incited the violent protests that we've seen over the last few days. Whatever the result, I imagine that any inciters will try to quiet down a bit; and, as a result, the violence is likely to die down (only to return in the form of angry political statements around the time of our next election).

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2021 5:30 am 
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So. Now that the dust has cleared a little.

Yes, there was massive rioting in KwaZulu-Natal, where a lot of Zuma's support base is. And in Gauteng, where our economic hub is. And reports suggest that it wasn't just random rioting; rather, it was planned, deliberate destruction of economic infrastructure, some of which will take years to properly repair. (It appears that there were also deliberate attempts to spark riots in other provinces; but these were stopped before triggering anything significant.)

It's been described as the worst violence to hit the country since the end of Apartheid.

However. Fortunately - very, very fortunately - it wasn't enough to destabilise the country.

It was enough to overwhelm the police - even after the army was called in to help out. But it turns out that the police and the army aren't the only forces for law and order in the country. It also turns out that there were a lot of people who were forming human shields to protect shopping malls and other economic hubs. And apparently that was enough to turn the tide.

........we're going to be picking up the pieces from this for a time. For a long time, really. And the entire KZN province, which is where the worst of it happened, may take a very long time to recover - given that economic growth will continue happening in places less touched by these riots, it may never reach the heights it could have reached without this whole mess.

However, the country has managed to stand through this test. Yes, we lost a bunch of stuff, and yes, some people died - also, a lot of people were arrested, and there are now plenty of cases which are going to go to court once all the evidence has been piled together and collected. And I imagine that this is Zuma's equivalent to Trump having a crowd storming the Capitol; it seems much the same in execution, in aim, and in result.

--------------

As for Zuma himself, well, he did turn himself over to police before all of this kicked off. (I wonder to what extent he did that only so that he would have a really good alibi when the riots kicked off). He's (still) calling for the prosecutor assigned to his case to be recused, on what appears to be the basis that "he's presenting a case against me and therefore he's biased". That case is supposed to be heard today, and with Zuma literally in jail, you'd think there was no way he could really avoid turning up for his case.

You'd think wrong; Zuma hasn't given up yet.

See, due to the current COVID situation (i.e. Not Good), the case is going to be held virtually, over video link. And Zuma's lawyers are arguing that, since Zuma will not actually be present in the courtroom, his right to a fair trial is being denied.

Note, the plan is that Zuma will be there, by video link. His lawyers say that's not good enough. (And this sort of tactic is why he's avoided court for over a decade now.) He's just not giving up.

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:29 am 
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Could you spell out why Zuma still has die-hard supporters willing to riot for him? What do they see in this guy?

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 Post subject: Re: Zuma
 Post Posted: Mon Jul 19, 2021 7:10 am 
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I don't know if I can. I do know that whatever he's using, it doesn't work on me.

I have guesses, and I can spell them out; but these are only guesses. From my observations, it looks like:

- Zuma is pretty much the most successful Zulu politician. Politics is by and large generally predominantly Xhosa; the caricatures of these two tribes are the fierce Zulu warrior and the sneaky Xhosa rogue (and you can see why the second caricature by and large makes a better politician, I'm sure) and apparently a large amount of his support base are fellow Zulus who don't much like the idea of a Xhosa (like Ramaphosa) being in charge of the country.

- Zuma has no formal education beyond a Standard Four (equivalent to grade six, if you're working entirely by grades). He might thus be seen as a champion of People Without Formal Education.

- Apparently he has amazing personal magnetism, one-on-one. (I wouldn't know, I've never personally met him).

- He's definitely been making extensive use of at least one, possibly several PR companies to improve his image. (Bell Pottinger literally collapsed trying to improve his image; he may have hired a replacement after that).

- He's been married, what, six, seven times? (Concurrently; yes, he's a polygamist, and yes, that's legal). And he's got a very large, very palatial homestead. A certain type of person might see him as an example to emulate, I guess?

- He's really very good at backroom and under-the-table deals. Not quite sure how this plays into it, maybe some people just like successful people, I guess?

.....and I think that's about all, really.

I'm forced to assume that whatever Zuma has going for him is very similar to whatever Trump has going for him, really. Both have die-hard supporters, and both seem to be able to provoke their supporters to riot. Mind you, I don't understand what Trump had going for him either, so that might not be a helpful comparison.

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