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 Post subject: The Virus
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 5:45 pm 
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In case anyone cares to discuss the current outbreak without pointing fingers (that can be done in POOP). With due apologies to folks in other countries, my best sources for information are in English and cover the US, so I'm going to be discussing that now.

First, the Imperial College of Medicine telling us that if we do nothing, then the US is looking at 2.2 million dead. But that's ignoring the fact that hospitalized cases in need of respirators would immediately overwhelm the supply of respirators, and basically everyone involved would die. This roughly doubles the mortality rate. But at least it would be all over by the beginning of September. Otherwise we're looking at various possible mitigation strategies which will have to run until there is enough of a viable vaccine for everyone, and that will take at least 18 months. More or less kiss the modern economy goodbye. But it will, depending on how it's done (and how many people flout the rules), keep the death toll down to somewhere between two million and a few tens of thousands.

That said, The CDC has some new numbers out. They indicate that the estimates used by the previous study of hospitalization rates for young adults is low; perhaps a third to a fifth of what we're seeing in the US right now. If these numbers hold up then the 'do nothing' approach would kill rather more than estimated above, and all but the most draconian of social and economic disruption would still kill more Americans than all our wars and the Spanish Flu of 1918-1919 put together. Which, ironically enough, was actually an American plague; it first arose in an Army base out west.

But long story short, either we accept the sort of casualties normally associated with a nuclear war or we settle in for a very long and tedious time. Looking out for each other, staying away from elderly relatives, staying home a lot and not going stir crazy; all of this on top of whatever economic hassles will develop. But hey, if we get through it in one piece we'll be able to use this to bore kids with for decades to come. Why should the Depression babies be the only ones to have any fun?

So, any thoughts to share, anecdotes, drink recipes? Just remember, this isn't POOP. No links from propaganda sites, no editorials about who was naughty up to this point. Thanks.

Oh, and a personal aside. I work for a civil service organization, and a few days ago they came through asking for volunteers to help staff a state run virus testing effort. I put in to help with the clerical end of it; folks above my pay grade would be doing the actual testing. I don't know if I'll be called, but at this rate I may be hearing from them sooner or later.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 7:43 pm 
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People are freaking out a fair bit in my neck of the woods. I'm one of the few people left in my building and will probably be one of the last remaining individuals still working on site as the days go by. Thankfully I'm already pretty isolated. Most people I interact with socially I do so with online, and once my work clears out I should have minimal chances of coming into contact with people.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:03 pm 
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I still go to work everyday (It's just menial labor, so no telecommuting for me) but they did cut my hours in half. Luckily, I'm a millenial* who still lives with my parents so financially I'm okay.

*I did live on my own at one point but had to move back for financial reasons a few years ago. So I suppose the technical term is 'boomerang kid'.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:58 pm 
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Just because PSAs can be a bit dry...Mel Brooks decided to do one.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:56 pm 
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Weremensh wrote:
Just because PSAs can be a bit dry...Mel Brooks decided to do one.


Sent to my dad, thanks!

I've been following the numbers from the world health organization. We're starting to really see that exponential growth right now in a lot of places. Scary.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... on-reports

The entire research community is basically been put on pause (outside of medical) since we can't run experiments with people now. For stuff that requires participants, at least. I guess this will be a theory-intensive year.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 6:39 am 
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I've been living with this for what, a month and a half already? We stopped the first wave by implementing mandatory quarantine on anyone coming from China (this made travelling unattractive enough that they pretty much stopped), although it took our medical workers going on strike to get it done. We've done OK with testing and tracing people who have been exposed. But just when things were starting to get back to normal, we got a second wave of infections from Europe and other countries, and we're probably going to go back into Turtle Mode. Now ALL foreign arrivals will need to be quarantined.

We have actually not needed many of the most stringent restrictions imposed in Italy. Stores and restaurants remained open. Public transport is still running. But the memory of SARS runs deep, and people knew what to do almost without being told. We all wore masks. Companies told people to work from home. We avoided going out. We cleaned the crap out of everything. Turns out SARS was the practice run.

With any luck we'll be able to hunker down and ride it out. The economy has taken a battering. Shops are starting to go out of business. Ngau might be laid off at the end of the semester - he teaches preschool and kindergarten now, and many of the parents stopped paying fees because the schools were all closed. We're OK financially, my job is secure for the next year at least.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 19, 2020 8:15 am 
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The apocalypse:
In theory: anarchy, zombies...
In practice: home office, no toiletpaper at the supermarket...

We live now under a nearly curfew. Restaurants and such are closed, all people who can have to work from home, you are only supposed to leave your apartment to go to the supermarket or drug store or for similiar reason. AFAIK public transport is still running, but i have not left my apartment the whole week, so i rely on second hand information only.

Oh and if Chuck Norris sneazes, the corona virus buys noodels and toiletpaper.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Sat Mar 21, 2020 3:56 pm 
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Bit of a bandaid, but not a bad idea...internet connected thermometers are apparently way ahead of conventional reporting in detecting fever spikes and noting which ones are anomalous. Not a bad way to apportion still scarce testing kits, it seems.

Also, an interesting demonstration on hand washing.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:47 pm 
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Got a 3D printer?

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Tue Mar 24, 2020 2:32 pm 
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The local college is apparently doing that. Using the 3D printers to cobble together masks to donate to hospitals. I'm not sure if they're medical grade but surely something is better than nothing.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:02 pm 
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I just read that the Four Seasons hotel here in NYC is providing free lodging to medical personnel who are in town to deal with the outbreak. I'm not sure how much time they'll have to use it, but I suppose a first class hotel beats couch surfing or sleeping on a cot somewhere.

Oh, and the manufacturer of a line of bare bones ventilators has put the plans online for anyone who wants to use them. The folks tooling up to mass produce emergency ventilators may turn out more of them that way, so good on them.

Actually, it's not terribly surprising how many acts of kindness I'm reading about hither and yon; but it is refreshing. And watching Italian mayors curse out their citizens for violating the quarantine is becoming a bit of a guilty pleasure even if I don't speak Italian.

Just remember: to be a quarantine it must come from the Quarantine region of France. Otherwise it's just sparkling isolation.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Wed Mar 25, 2020 9:21 pm 
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Weremensh wrote:
Actually, it's not terribly surprising how many acts of kindness I'm reading about hither and yon; but it is refreshing. And watching Italian mayors curse out their citizens for violating the quarantine is becoming a bit of a guilty pleasure even if I don't speak Italian.

I'm sure the number of good people outweigh the bad ones. Unfortunately, it just takes fewer bad people to do a lot of damage.

Weremensh wrote:
Just remember: to be a quarantine it must come from the Quarantine region of France. Otherwise it's just sparkling isolation.

I groaned, I lol'd, and I shared that with my French friends. Thanks!

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:19 pm 
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These folks seem to be a decent site for virus related info and links. They even have a link to fill out the census online, if that's your thing.

And since most folks at least dabble in Twitter, this fellow does really good daily wrap ups of the public health end of it. He ran Medicare, Medicaid and the ACA for Obama, so he has some knowledge of the field and a bunch of connections.

And in passing, more than three million folks lost their jobs around here (possibly going on four; the system crashed a few times). Hopefully the emergency bill that came out of the Senate, decidedly imperfect as it is, comes out of the House without too many delays and gets put in motion promptly. The problems can mostly be fixed in later legislation.

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 9:40 am 
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Spirantz wrote:
I've been following the numbers from the world health organization. We're starting to really see that exponential growth right now in a lot of places. Scary.
https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease ... on-reports


That WHO resource is always a bit behind. The John Hopkins map seems to update the quickest (outside of checking the individual country).

Looks like the US is going to be experiencing some MAJOR problems soon. You're really escalating now. I get extremely scared for you when listening to Trump :|. Stay indoors!!!!
(note: Further Trump talk goes in PooP! hehe... love saying that.). You need those Italian leaders that are flat out just telling everyone to "STAY THE F*** INDOORS!!"

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 Post subject: Re: The Virus
 Post Posted: Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:37 pm 
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Granted they didn't have to put up the walls, but the Javits Center here in NYC has been turned into a temporary hospital in one week. Happily Comic Con has already come and gone not long ago.

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