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 Post subject: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Aug 20, 2015 11:20 pm 
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Someone had to.

So, we have a candidate who wants to repeal the 14th Amendment while protecting Social Security and Medicare, who isn't really bothered by the ACA, and who is not that fond of the latest trade pact. All of this is much closer to what the Republican bases who aren't filthy rich want than any of the other candidates could dare to go. No great surprise that Fox got spanked when they tried to go after him. Lincoln may be rolling in his grave; but in fairness it hasn't been his party since 1968.

The questions going forward, I think, are these; is he going to define the conversation for the rest of the nominating process, and is he going to get nominated? The first is all but a given now; only two of the other Republicans running said outright that they would not end birthright citizenship (one more weaseled his way around to it, the others are with Trump on this one). Equally, the only candidates moving up in the polls right now are the ones who share his anti-establishment rhetoric. The other? A big if, but apparently getting smaller as time goes on.

One way or the other, I'm going to have a ball watching this.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2015 1:17 pm 
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the quandary is this. If the RNC nominates him, They lose. Clinton/Sanders will annihilate Trump in a general election. If the RNC does NOT nominate him, they lose. In a three-way election Clinton/Sanders will take 50+% of the vote, and Bush and Trump will be split 30%/20%. it'll be Perot in '92 all over again.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2015 4:31 pm 
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I want in my heart of hearts to believe that Trump has a snowball's chance in Hell of getting the nomination. I keep reminding myself of 2012 when Cain, Bachman, Gingrich et al. were all first in the polls at some point or other before they eventually gave in to the inevitability of Romney. That's all this is, right??

Of course on the off chance he does, I think the Democrats will win handily.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Aug 21, 2015 9:55 pm 
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Dodger77 wrote:
I keep reminding myself of 2012 when Cain, Bachman, Gingrich et al. were all first in the polls at some point or other before they eventually gave in to the inevitability of Romney. That's all this is, right??

Could be, but who else is rich enough to be Romney? Jeb? He's the fundraising king; but the base likes him even less than Romney, he's way behind Clinton, he's a Bush, and nobody is even talking about his mafia connections and such like yet. The rest are even less credible right now.

Mind you, several hundred million dollars in attack ads may do for Trump; but it's hard for me to see how that could happen without also putting paid to any Republican candidate. Everyone already knows who and what The Donald is; and attacking his positions will simply alienate base voters they absolutely need to survive the general election.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2015 12:02 pm 
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Why would anyone even consider Trump? He is more wishy washy on issues than John Kerry ever was.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Aug 22, 2015 7:51 pm 
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The most credible sounding answer I've seen is Dixiecrats. Remember, these folks are/were racists who like the New Deal (at least for themselves); and they've been stuck in a racist but anti-New Deal party since they became Republicans. Now along comes Trump, the first Republican in decades who is saying he agrees with them on both of their planks. Even if they don't particularly trust him (and on those two points there's no reason not to), he's still their closest match.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2015 6:19 am 
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but he has change positions on topics more often than a couple trying out every pose in the Kama Sutra.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Aug 23, 2015 9:08 am 
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I personally think consistency is more of a talking point than a value among the Republican base; but even if they really do value it, when has Trump ever been pro-blacks, pro-Hispanics, or anti-Social Security? Granted I've never been that interested in him, but I'm unaware of him every staking out those positions.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Aug 27, 2015 1:43 pm 
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It looks like I erred about Trump's appeal. He is leading among pretty much every part of the non-rich Rupublican base, and they're fairly serious about it. If Luntz says Trump could win the nomination, then he probably does have an actual shot at it. All of which seems to say that issues aside (he now wants to raise taxes on the rich and end the carried interest deduction), what we are looking at is also a cult of personality.

They like him. They really like him. Who'd have thunk?

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Sep 17, 2015 1:25 am 
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gregnier wrote:
the quandary is this. If the RNC nominates him, They lose. Clinton/Sanders will annihilate Trump in a general election. If the RNC does NOT nominate him, they lose. In a three-way election Clinton/Sanders will take 50+% of the vote, and Bush and Trump will be split 30%/20%. it'll be Perot in '92 all over again.


Is there any candidate the Republicans can run who has a shot at beating Clinton?

I'm just depressed that we have no viable options for good governance no matter who runs, from any party.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Sep 18, 2015 6:31 pm 
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The Republicans could theoretically win if the press stays in the tank for them, but only if Trump evaporates last Tuesday. He's forcing them to say in simple declarative terms and on the air what they've been saying in code and off camera for decades, and that's going to cost them dearly. Oh top of that, now the Club for Growth wants to openly wages class war against him on behalf of their hyper-rich clique; and that's going to be really pretty given the really obvious ways he can shoot back. Heaven help whoever they wind up backing when it's over.

For what it's worth, the Democrats can govern; they can actually do it moderately well (all the Democratic candidates have creditable histories in Congress). They just can't do it with a party openly dedicated to sabotaging governance at all levels for personal and partisan gain sitting across the aisle.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Sep 19, 2015 7:22 am 
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Oh top of that, now the Club for Growth wants to openly wages class war against him on behalf of their hyper-rich clique; and that's going to be really pretty given the really obvious ways he can shoot back.

That whole situation is hilarious. Trump may seem rich to us peons but he really isn't one of them. He is an awful business man. Everyone knows about his four bankruptcies but analysis of his financial history tells even more. He only has so much now because of how much his rich father gave him to start out with. His incompetence has actually kept him from making as much money as he could have made. Any one of us would have successfully made more money than him had we started with the same amount at the same time as him, simply put it into an index fund, then sat back while the stock market did its thing.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2015 7:31 am 
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So The Donald is still pretty much in the lead, the party leadership still doesn't know how to deal with it, Carson (of all people) is running a strong second, and Bush! is crashing and burning. Still, they all agree on something; the hyper-rich need more subsidies, nothing should be done to inconvenience the Koch brother's investment in coal, and the rest of us can jump in the nearest hand-basket.

Values, don't you know.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Oct 28, 2015 2:56 pm 
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and yet is seems the unmentionable (much like his father before him) Rand Paul is winning most of the straw polls.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 02, 2015 1:00 am 
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Trump may talk populist economics, but in reality his tax plan is just as much about tax breaks for the rich as all the other Republicans. He's a liar. That means he's not a threat to the plutocrats, and when they figure this out they'll probably support him, if only they could get over their embarrassment of being associated with such a clownish figure.

Trump's appeal is that he isn't a serious candidate. Serious candidates don't have a lot of credibility right now, and there's a lot of mostly old, overwhelmingly white, really pissed off people who basically blame Obama for everything and want to throw a bull into the china shop. Wonkishness, respectability, coherence, complexity, actual policy ideas that aren't made of wishful thinking and magical asterisks, those things matter not one bit. They nominated Romney for those things last time, and see how that turned out. They want big, and loud, and simple, and confident. And that's what Trump's giving them. Every time he says something obnoxious and offensive, they like him more, that just means he's honest. Not "honest" as in saying things that are actually empirically accurate, because who cares about annoying facts? Honest as in, he doesn't give a crap about propriety and says the things everyone's racist uncle is thinking.

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