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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:10 am 
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Additionally to Trump - some Democrat swing voters you also need to consider voters, who swing between voting and not voting.

Which allows for a lot of different options:
Trumpians, who vote only because they are angry their leader got attacked.
Republicans, who stay home because they dislike Trump and the other republican politicans performance.
Democrats, who are angry Trump did not get convicted and thus vote.
Democrats, who get depressed, when Trump does not get convicted and thus stay home.
Democrats, who find the democratic candidate not inspirering enough.

Regarding only Biden beating Trump reliably in polls, i wonder how much that is due to "Trump vs X, who would you vote for?" "Dunno, who is X?". (or they have a vague idea who X is, but not more and thus say "don't know").

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:43 pm 
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Well, he's done it. Trump is the first president to be impeached for a crime specified in the Constitution. He's the second one to be impeached for committing an actual crime in his official capacity; but since the law Johnson broke was later found to be unconstitutional, Trump's scored another first. So much winning.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 2:10 am 
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What do you mean? The only two impeachable crimes specified in the constitution are bribery and treason, and they didn't go after him for bribery. They went for the less ambitious "abuse of power" and "obstruction of Congress" which fall under the umbrella of "high crimes and misdemeanors".

I figure Mitch is going to make a complete farce of the Senate "trial". He doesn't even seem interested in pretending to be fair. It's not his style. He's always gone for sheer unapologetic partisanship and so far it's worked for him.

How many Democrats in swing districts are up for reelection next November, vs. how many Republicans?

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 6:45 am 
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Johnson wasn't technically charged with abetting treason by being too nice to the folks behind the Confederacy, nor was Clinton technically charged with being a Democrat who was a better politician than anyone in the Republican party; but that's what they were impeached for. Trump was impeached for bribery and a bunch of related federal felonies all wrapped up in one omnibus charge (the other being for the coverup afterwards).

As for the formal swing districts? Not sure, but as of now this isn't going to hurt the Democrats (though of course that could change). There are very few Republicans left in such districts, though; and they're busy trying not to lose more of their carefully gerrymandered safe districts which are now suddenly swing districts because they officially endorsed raping middle class white women to get Kavanaugh on the bench.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:08 pm 
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I think the Democrats will hold the House (hopefully) but what are their chances of retaking the Senate? Are there more Republicans likely to be damaged by protecting Trump than Democrats by voting to remove him? How many Dems hold Senate seats vulnerable to angry gloating Republican turnout?

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Dec 20, 2019 7:09 am 
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There's what seems to be a reasonable analysis here: they see the ones who need to be worried about the politics as 3 Democrats and 7 Republicans. For what it's worth, the political opinion folks are saying that the Republicans expect to lose between 3 and 6, possibly up to 10 of their number on this vote.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Dec 23, 2019 7:09 am 
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I'm kind of amused: the Trump grifting machine is complaining that the suckers in the cheap seats are being played by other members of the right wing grifting ecosystem who are pretending to collect money for Trump. Apparently they're just as scrupulous as the Trump machine when it comes to money's collected versus monies kept, but Trump and his co-conspirators really hate that they're not getting the other 95% of what's apparently already nearly $50 million in donations from the angry white suckers. Shame there's really nothing they can do about it; if there were then they'd have been shut down themselves years ago.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Thu Dec 26, 2019 11:43 pm 
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Weremensh wrote:
There's what seems to be a reasonable analysis here: they see the ones who need to be worried about the politics as 3 Democrats and 7 Republicans. For what it's worth, the political opinion folks are saying that the Republicans expect to lose between 3 and 6, possibly up to 10 of their number on this vote.


That's a relief, I suppose. That's about as good odds for the Democrats as one can expect. They could still screw it up, I suppose, if the Democrats lose all three of their seats and the Republicans limit their losses to 3.

And is Trump getting noticeably crazier? He's always been ignorant, rambling and incoherent, but he seems to be reaching underpants-on-head territory lately.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Jan 03, 2020 8:58 am 
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And wouldn't it be nice to be dumb enough to think Trump and his boys did their due diligence before they killed an Iranian general? Aside from the whole being that much of a sucker?

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:19 am 
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While I am sure that this is the result of Trump and his cronies having stripped his administration of anyone who knows a bloody thing about anything, I also imagine he is also being utterly craven about it. I give the Republicans and Fox News about 72 hours before they unanimously fling themselves behind him beating the patriotic war drum, in a total reversal of everything they had previously said about dragging the country into unnecessary wars.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:16 pm 
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Happily the Iranians are behaving (for now). Shame about that passenger plane, though it is interesting to see that the Canadians seem more annoyed at Trump than the unknown SAM battery commander. Here at home only about 25% feel safer for the assassination, 56% think he screwed up...so much for wagging the dog to wrap himself in the flag.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 15, 2020 4:57 am 
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We are amazingly lucky that the Iranian government has proved more incompetent than the Trump administration. As if we need any more proof that we are living in the darkest timeline.

Yet more incriminating evidence has surfaced about Giuliani's antics. Colluding with the disgraced Ukrainian prosecutor and stalking the US ambassador.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 15, 2020 5:22 am 
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Kea wrote:
We are amazingly lucky that the Iranian government has proved more incompetent than the Trump administration.


I don't know about that - the Iranian leaders probably want very, very badly not to actually end up in a war with the American army. It's to their benefit that any 'retaliation' that they offer isn't big enough to make an excuse for said army to actually march into Iran.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 15, 2020 6:26 am 
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I meant the part about accidentally shooting down a passenger plane. That immediately evaporated the patriotic burst of public opinion after the assassination of Soleimani and now people are protesting against the government for being stupid enough to kill several hundred people and try to cover it up.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Jan 15, 2020 9:34 pm 
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I suppose it's possible they didn't know; the folks down the chain lied and tried to cover up until they couldn't any more. Not that that helps much, but it will make things interesting for whoever was involved.

Oh, and apparently efficient dishwashers are bad. The modern American right: doing the banality of evil thing since Barry Goldwater and Dick Nixon.

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