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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Fri Nov 02, 2018 6:05 am 
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It's the classic fascist apeal:

"I know by common sense, who the good guys are and who the bad guys are. I might not be able to explain it in a comprehesive way, that you can write down in a flow chart or something, but i know a good guy when i see one and i know a bad guy when i see one".

And while that is an approach that often works well for small groups, like some hobby sports club or something, it breaks down once the group gets so large, that not everyone knows everyone else.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Sun Nov 04, 2018 11:52 pm 
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Not to mention a large percentage of the country simply lives in an alternative reality, and I'm not just talking about the conspiracy nuts who think the Democrats are operating child prostitution rings out of pizza restaurants. I mean regular people.

Most people don't pay that much attention to politics, and when they do, it's only to the messages from their side. When Trump puts refugees in cages or another of his flunkies pleads guilty to money laundering, they'll only listen long enough for their trusted sources to tell them it's a nothingburger. The stuff they do get exercised about are the offences committed by the other side, whether it's gay people suing Christian businesses or a riot breaking out at a Black Lives Matter protest. My aunt genuinely believes that it's the Democrats who are being hateful and vicious.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 9:15 am 
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Kea wrote:
Most people don't pay that much attention to politics, and when they do, it's only to the messages from their side. When Trump puts refugees in cages or another of his flunkies pleads guilty to money laundering, they'll only listen long enough for their trusted sources to tell them it's a nothingburger.


That's very true. And my big hope is just that those people are so disengaged, that they just don't feel a impetus to get out and vote in a year when their top guy isn't even up for re-election.

As a report from the trenches --I've been out doorknocking with my family, and I can report firsthand that the Dems in the cities are way fired up and voting. So the big question is what are the conservatives out in the rural areas doing and feeling? If they are similarly fired up, this is gonna be a big knock-down drag-out fight to the finish. If they aren't...

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Mon Nov 05, 2018 10:37 pm 
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It looks like Trump's immigrant-bashing will fire up the base, at the expense of giving the less extreme Republicans the heebie-jeebies. Analysts are saying that will help the Republicans keep the Senate and hurt them in the House.

Do you live in a competitive district for either Congress or the Senate? The Democrats are within a couple of percentage points of breaking through a lot of Republican gerrymanders. Raw probability suggests they'll win some of those seats, but it's fairly dicey.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:05 am 
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I don't live in a competitive district, but I've been canvassing in Ohio House District 12, which is close by and razor close.

As far as my own neighborhood, the only thing we'll directly impact is probably the Ohio governor's race, which is also razor close.

The only open Senate race in Ohio is a popular Democratic incumbent with a weak challenger.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 11:48 am 
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It's pretty much a given that every Democrat on the ballot in my neighborhood will win, for better or for worse. Still, it would be rude not to do my bit anyway.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:56 pm 
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Good lord, voting in Georgia sounds like a poop parade. 4 hour waits. Broken voting machines. On top of all of Kemp's other shenanigans. As Trevor Noah said, that's some African level **** going on there.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 2:58 am 
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I don't know about you, but I'm relieved. The blue wave turned out to be more of a damp squelch, but the Democrats eked out a 3-seat margin in the House. The Senate was a mess, but it was a rotten map to begin with, so no surprise there.

I'm disappointed that Beto O'Rourke, Andrew Gillum and Stacey Abrams all lost, but at least Wisconsin got rid of Scott Walker and Kris Kobach (gag) is out.

I hope Congress's first order of business is to kick Devin Nunes out of the House Committee on Intelligence.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:28 am 
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I felt like America secured the bare minimum to keep democracy on life support.

Most of the very worst people running won, which means that this election isn't the firm rebuke of the racism and corruption of the Trump era that I was hoping for, but, in many places, an enthusiastic endorsement of it. I'm more worried than relieved.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 7:48 am 
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I see your point. It's like, Trump is basically Shambolic Nixon. How is this even close? I just think it would have been so much worse had the Republicans held the House because then he would have completely free rein. So I am glad that didn't happen.

I am worried that the remaining Republicans are all the crazy ones because the Democrats knocked out the conventional suburban ones.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 9:40 am 
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Kea wrote:
I am worried that the remaining Republicans are all the crazy ones because the Democrats knocked out the conventional suburban ones.


Yes, it looks like moderates on both sides tended to lose out this time round. So Congress will be yet even more polarized.

Look for a internal coup in the House as the Dems take over. Which is to say: They're crazy if they put Pelosi back in the top spot.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:09 am 
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Kea wrote:
I see your point. It's like, Trump is basically Shambolic Nixon. How is this even close?


As the lower class white women made perfectly clear, they went for the platform of racism and rapism because it was how they could defend the white privilege without which their husbands would have done even worse. In states with very few people and very low rates of education, that kind of thing is important.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 10:36 am 
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Well, what John Oliver calls Stupid Watergate is about to heat up. Who knows what Mueller's been sitting on until the election was over.

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 12:36 pm 
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Yes, I imagine there are important indictments Mueller has been sitting on because he didn't want to muddy the midterm waters.

However, whether or not there will be the political will to follow up on them in the absence of a blue wave is still an open question. On the other hand the House Dems will definitely face enormous pressure from their core constituents to hold Trump to account.

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without which their husbands would have done even worse


Or at least putatively worse. Tribalism has been a reliable, effective, and consistent way of getting people to act against their own best interests, to the benefit of the unscrupulous, since the dawn of human history. Sad!

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 Post subject: Re: Trump.
 Post Posted: Wed Nov 07, 2018 8:48 pm 
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Trump's already moving to bury Mueller's investigation. Whitaker doesn't have to fire Mueller, he can slow walk the investigation until Trump leaves office or keep his report secret, even from Congress.

Mueller could hand off prosecutions to states, but only the ones involving state laws being broken.

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