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 Post Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:33 pm 
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OK, the realistic field has narrowed down to Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg. Only the last is a real surprise.

Who do you prefer, and who do you think will win? I like Warren the best out of the bunch, but then I've always had a soft spot for wonks.

I wouldn't mind Bernie, but feel like he's a bit of a one trick pony. The the thing that turns me off of him is his foreign policy, or lack thereof. "How Will You Deal With China?" is a really important issue for me, and Bernie's answer to that is "Eh, China kinda sucks but there's nothing much we can do". He's just not thought about it much at all.

Buttigieg, he's basically Biden, but younger, and less weird and rambling. Don't really have strong feelings about him one way or the other. Seems like a bit of a glib Mr. Clever Clogs. In a normal election year I'd be concerned about his lack of experience but not when the sitting president is an actual game show host.

I am most dreading a "hold your nose and vote for Biden" campaign; I only remember elections back to Bush vs. Gore, but in every one the candidate who was able to better resonate emotionally with voters won. If Biden ever had that ability, I don't think he does anymore.

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 Post Posted: Fri Dec 20, 2019 5:44 am 
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I did not do any in depth analysis of the candidates but here is my take:

I believe the democrats should put up someone from their left, both because i think that the policies would be good for the US and because i think they can gain more by increasing the turnout of their base, then they can gain from swing voters.

I think Warren has a slight edge in electablity and in the chances to get her policies implemented, because she is generally percieved as less radical and more establishment then Sanders, so she can use the narrative "Sanders is the left edge, Trump the right, i am the sensible middle ground if a bit leftleaning" for the politically uninterested part of the electorate, where Sanders would have to rely much more on base turnout.

And when in office, she can in negotiations use "I have to bring in something for the left base, if you don't give me anything, next time you might have to negotiate with someone like Sanders", which would not work that well the other way round, and this gives her some extra leverage and policies that are sold as compromise tend to be more durable.

As a little caveat my overall impression on Sanders is, that somewhat in contrast to his archetypical supporters, he actually is a skilled machiavellist. Like after all he is in politics forever and only at a time when he has realistic chances to have an impact he does the big slpash on national level things like running for president. So there is some chance that he does better in office, then his positioning on the political spectrum would suggest.

Buttigieg seems like a machiavellist without any real principles to me, but a very skilled one. I guess he'd do well electorally, unless he is crippled by a low black voter turnout or something like this. I don't think there are any real indicators what policies he will pursue when in office, because his current Biden like position might simply be due to him trying to attract Biden voters for strategic reason in this stage of the campain.

Biden seems a "he scares Republican the least, so maybe some of them will vote for him" candiate and this strategy has a very bad track record. And a bit of "Make America as great as it was under Obama again", which could work, but i don't know if it is enough.

Seems like i have the same ranking as Kea.

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 Post Posted: Sat Jan 11, 2020 1:53 am 
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Warren is still my favorite. I wouldn't mind Biden because they say he has the chance of beating Trump and that's worth something. Sanders is actually starting to grate on me. He talks like's typing in ALL CAPS at the debates and he does come off as a one trick pony. Both Warren and Sanders come off as weak when it comes to foreign policy though, I suppose that's one advantage Biden has over them despite his gaffe -proneness.

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 Post Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:23 am 
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Buttigieg has turned out some surprisingly strong answers on foreign policy (at least on how to deal with China), although I am not sure how much to attribute this to his ability to sound erudite on any topic regardless of how much he knows or cares about it. The man could probably wax philosophical about competitive hot-dog eating if pressed.

Klobuchar still seems to be hanging in there.

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 Post Posted: Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:23 pm 
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So it seems Sanders is starting to attack his rivals, but tried to do it quietly. Color me shocked.

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